Top 10 Prospects - Braves

Two years ago the Braves minor league system was a mess, but Braves management has done a good job in obtaining early draft selections and have done a very good job in making selections with those picks. The Braves have lots of pitching on the way but need to find some bats.

1. Chuck Lofgren, P, Kansas City Royals
Heading the list is left hander Lofgren. Lofgren has a solid repertoire of four pitches, a low 90's fastball, a spike curve, a changeup (his best pitch) and a developing slider. None of his pitches stand out as plus-plus pitch but all are solid-strong. He has a very clean delivery and has the ability of throwing all of his pitches for strikes. Last year Lofgren progessed a great deal and he will probably move to AA next season.

2. Dellin Betances, P, New York Yankees
About six months prior to the 2006 MLB draft Betances was my favorite pitching prospect in the draft. Betances struggled with consistency in his senior season which led many to believe he was going to attend college and scared me away. He signed with the Yankees and looks like a great pick by the Braves. Betances stuff has the best potential of anyone in the system. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he has a low 80's curve. His third pitch is a developing change, with all three pitches at plus or developing plus. Keeping his mechanics clean will be the challenge for this tall youngster.

3. Kyle Drabek, P, Philadelphia Phillies
Drabek goes to the mound with a nasty first two pitches. The first is an unhittable spike curve that is in the lower 80's range and the second is a mid 90's fastball. Through high school Drabek did not require a third pitch but he started working on a change in the fall and it is showing the ability to be an average or better pitch. Drabek has a clean compact delivery. I placed Betances higher on this list because he has been more successful so far, and I believe he is further from his ceiling then Drabek is.

4. Thomas Diamond, P, Texas Rangers
Diamond probably led this list a year ago, but more questions have been raised about him over the last year. Diamond has low 90's fastball that he throws high in the zone, and a plus change that is a nice constrasting pitch to his fastball. His third pitch is a developing slider that he started to toss last year. Diamond is seen as a potential #3 workshorse starter, but he really struggled last year to throw strikes and more mature hitters worked him to long counts which meant he only averaged 5 innings a start. If he does not improve his control then he will probably become a closer.

5. Tyler Lumsden, P, Kansas City Royals
Rating Lumsden at this level is not consistent to my own beliefs, but I decided to give the benefit of the doubt to the publications that are out there. Lumsden has a clean delivery that allows him to throw three quality pitches, a low 90's fastball, a 12-6 curve and a changeup. Nothing really shines as being potential plus, but he is a solid overall package. Lumsden will go to AAA next year and may appear in the Royals rotation next year.

6. Jordan Tata, P, Detroit Tigers
Tata is not an overpowering pitcher but instead works the plate to get hitters out. He throws a low 90's cut fastball and has an above average knuckle curve. Tata is currently working on adding a slider, but that project is far from being successful. He has a clean delivery, but has alot for warts including average stuff, nothing to get lefties out, and average command for a pitcher who needs to be a control pitcher. I believe his future is as a middle reliever, though he may sit in AAA for a couple years while attempting to crack the Tigers rotation.


7. Colten Willems, P, Washington Nationals
Willems is a second strong selection in the 2006 draft by the Braves, who has the ability to move into the top 3 group with Lofgren, Betances, and Drabek. He has a perfect pitchers body and currently has a clean delivery and a plus fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's. He currently has a mid 80's slider as his second pitch but it still requires some work to become a plus pitch. The biggest concerns for Willems is his change up is average and he has already had to be shut down with mild arm issues. Willems will attempt to become a starting pitcher for the Braves, but if that is not successful it is easy to see his stuff work as a closer.


8. Matt LaPorta, 1B, NCAA (Florida)
It is always very difficult to figure out where to squeeze in a college or high school player, but I figured this was a safe place for LaPorta. Some would think LaPorta could have been higher since he is the top rated college senior, but lets remember that after his junior season he was still only a 14th round selection by Boston. He also could have been lower but the guys below him have only proven they have huge holes in their game. LaPorta fell to the 14th round for two reasons, an injury caused a bad junior year where he pressed too hard, and boras is his agent. LaPorta has one plus tool and that is extreme power. So far this year LaPorta is having a very good senior season and he should go in the first couple rounds of the June draft.

9. Jason Place, OF, Boston Red Sox
Place is a toolsy outfielder that has the range to play center and the arm to play right. He brings a complete offensive package that has the ability to hit for power as well as the ability to steal a good number of bases. The challenge that Place has is that he is a very agressive hitter which means he does not walk much and that just does not produce usable strat cards. A great example of that, and probably Place's ceiling, is Jeff Francouer. So far in 1.5 years Fancouer has only become a bat against lefties (which is not that great this year) and a defensive substitution.

10. Justin Orenduff, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Braves minor league system seems to consist of four very good prospects, five good prospects and then alot of question marks. Orenduff is the first question mark. At his best he looks like a back of the rotation innings eater with a upper 80's low 90's fastball, very good slider and below average change. He struggles to get lefties out and struggles to meet expectations on command. The biggest concern is 2006 was a waste due to injuries. I do not see Orenduff going up on this list and believe that if he makes the majors it will be in the bullpen.

Best of the Rest: Ryan Harvey, OF, Chicago Cubs
Sleeper: Greg Golson, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Next Up: Winchester Cannons

Top 10 Prospects - Blues

Third in my series of ratings the top 10 prospects for each franchise is the Beechurst Bliues. I must admit, I did not know what to expect when rating the Blues. The Blues ownership has been very quite since I joined this league and because of that I do not think I ever look at his team. I was surprised to find out that the minor league system is not bad. They currently have between 14-18 solid prospects with three that I feel could be strong major league players.

1. Reid Brignac – SS – Tampa Bay Devilrays
Leading the pack is recently acquired shortstop Reid Brignac. Brignac cost alot with the Blues giving up top closer, soon to be starter Jon Papelbon, but sometimes you need to sell high and when you get the chance to pick up an offensive shortstop then I think you do it. Brignac’s biggest asset is a plus bat that has power potential, and some of that potential is already showing as he hit 20+ homeruns in High A and AA. He is not a pull hitter but tends to use the whole field to his advantage. He does need to control his swing a little more and decrease his strikeouts. Defensively he has proven solid range, and has a very strong arm, but again he needs to play under control and cut down on his throwing errors. Brignac is not blocked in the majors so he probably moves up fast, and as long as his defense improves he could be an allstar shortstop.

2. Miguel Montero – C – Arizona Diamondbacks
Montero brings a solid approach in every facit of the game with no one specific ability that stands out, and really no weaknesses. Offensively he is a hitter that will use the whole field and tends to make a decent amount of contact. Not known for having great power he will be good for 10-15 homeruns per season and will draw an average number of walks. Montero is not like most latin American catchers who typically excel defensively, instead he has slowly improved from a horrible defensive catcher to a solid one that manages the game well. He will get the chance to play in Arizona this year and most publications say he will become the starter over Chris Snyder. Personally I do not understand why because Snyder was rushed to the majors, had a solid second year and is a very good defensive catcher....but I may be biased.

3. Michael Bowden – P – Boston Red Sox
After Brignac, Bowden is my favourite in this organization. Bowden had a very good first full season and comes at hitters with two plus pitches (fastball and curve) and has very good command of both pitches. He has the potential of being a #2/#3 starter in the majors but must work on improving his changeup. The biggest concern with Bowden is his delivery which could be a cause for injury concern.

4. Brad Snyder – OF – Cleveland Indians
Snyder is an impressive prospect but one that will frustrate ownership for many years in the majors. From a tools perspective Snyder is great. Many owners try and find players that can hit 20 homeruns and steal 20 bases on an annual basis and Snyder is that type of guy. He has a very quick power bat, very good speed, and a very strong arm. So why the frustration? Making contact is difficult for Snyder. Snyder will probably be a .250 hitter in the majors with a .300 on base percentage, be a 20/20 man and strike out a ton.

5. Sean Gallagher – P – Chicago Cubs
Gallagher is a prospect that did not interest me much a couple years ago, but has greatly improved since then. When signed by Chicago, Gallagher was known as a high 80’s control pitcher with a very good curveball but since the draft he has added 5 MPH on his fastball and has not lost any movement. Today he has a heavy low 90’s fastball, very good curve and an improving change. Gallagher still has very good command and will move through the system quickly. He has the ceiling of a #3 starter and the biggest concern I have about him is he is a starting pitcher in the Chicago Cubs system (with Pinella as a manager). That is a system that has a horrible “injury” history with pitchers and a manager that has no clue how to deal with young starters.

6. Mitch Maier – OF – Kansas City Royals
I really do not know why I am putting Maier this high as he is not the type of prospect I would even be lukewarm on, but, so many publications have rated him higher then I would...I will give them the benefit of the doubt. Maier is a hard working, average tool prospect. What he has done the best in the minors is hit for average with 10-15 homerun power. He has average speed and needs to do a better job at working pitchers for more walks. Defensively, he is currently in centerfield where he has decent range and a average arm. My belief is he will be a fourth outfielder or play in a platoon facing lefties. Maier’s problem is he does not have enough power to play a corner outfield spot, where Butler and Huber will probably play anyways and his range just is not enough for centerfield.

7. Greg Miller – P – Los Angeles Dodgers
A few years ago, Miller was the top rated left handed starter in the minors. Then injury struck and he was basically out of commission for 2004 and 2005. In 2006, the Dodgers took a patient approach with Miller and had him focus on getting his velocity back. He is now throwing in the low 90’s and is struggling to command his pitches. Miller does have four pitches, but is focusing on being a two pitch reliever, which is what I believe his future will be. Miller should get to the majors this year as a lefty reliever, and in time, may move back to the rotation.

8. Manny Parra – P – Milwaukee Brewers
Parra’s path to the majors has mirrored Miller’s. Parra was one of the Brewers top pitching prospect’s until a shoulder injury forced him to miss a year. Since coming back from surgery, Parra has struggled to repeat his delivery and therefore continues to have command issues. His biggest strength are his two seem and four seem fastballs, which are supported by average secondary offerings. Parra still has horrible mechanics and will always be an injury waiting to happen. Though starting today, I believe Parra will also end up in the pen.

9. Ryan Mount – 2B – Los Angeles Angels
Mount is a prospect that I believe can move up this list over time. He brings a very patient approach to the plate where he has the ability to hit for a good average, walk a ton, a hit double digit homeruns on a yearly basis. He will not steal a ton of bases and probably will only ever be a 2nd baseman, but he is perfect for the #2 spot in the lineup.

10. Mike Megrew – P – Los Angeles Dodgers
Please note that this is not a recording. Megrew was a top Dodgers prospect before hurting his arm and having Tommy John surgery. Since coming back, Megrew has struggled to regain his command, but that should come in time. Prior to the injury, Megrew was know as a upper 80’s fastball pitcher with great command and a great changeup.

Best of the Rest: Wes Roemer – P - NCAA
Sleeper: Jeff Bianchi – SS – Kansas City Royals
Next Up: Milwaukee Braves

Top 10 Prospects - Blue Ox

The Bangor Blue Ox have an interesting minor league system. It is not deep and is lacking many “blue chip” prospects (they have one), but it has about 10-12 prospects that are all pretty much have the same type of potential...which makes it really difficult to place them. For example, the guy who is #9 could have easily been #2.

1. Ryan Braun – 3B – Milwaukee Brewers
Braun is easily the top choice on this list. Braun was a 1st round pick in 2005 and brings a nice complete offensive package. He has a quick bat that will produce both consistent contact and power. Braun also has a patient enough approach at the plate and he is slightly above average on the bases. The biggest challenge for Braun is his defense and it is questioned whether he can stay at 3rd or move to the outfield. He is moving fast so expect him to get carded either in 2008 or 2009 cardsets.

2. Ubaldo Jimenez – P – Colorado Rockies
Now is when the list gets crazy. As I stated, any of the remaining top 10 could have been placed here but I went with the guy that is ready for the majors. The good news about Jimenez is that he has a scary 3-plus pitch package led by a fastball that touches 98. The bad news is that he has mechanical issues that cause inconsistency and injuries (historically).

3. Brandon Jones – OF – Atlanta Braves
Brandon Jones brings a nice all around package where he will not be great at any one thing but should be solid to good in everything. Jones should hit for an average in the .270 range with a walk every 10 Abs and enough power to be a third or fourth outfielder. I expect he could be a consistent 20-20 guy with solid defense. This is not spectacular, but he gets number 3 because he is getting close to being ready for the majors.

4. Ian Kennedy – P – New York Yankees
Kennedy is a control pitcher that will induce a huge number of ground balls when he makes the majors. Lets just hope ARod can field them. Kennedy has excellent command but only throws his fastball in the upper 80’s. His best pitch is probably his changeup which causes the grounders. He needs to work on his third pitch and really spot his pitches to hit his ceiling as a #4-5 starter. He should move to the majors quite quick.

5. Ricky Romero – P – Toronto Blue Jays
Romero is a clone of Kennedy but a lefty instead of a righty. Romero is a control pitcher that has fastball a couple ticks faster then Kennedy’s. His outpitch is the changeup which has strong downward movement. His third pitch is a curve that needs work. Kennedy got the nod over Romero due to better control and the fact I think the Yankees will move him faster.

6. Eric Campbell – 3B – Atlanta Braves
Back in 2004 I was a big fan of Eric Campbell and unfortunately he has not progressed as I would have hoped. Campbell is a very aggressive hitter that makes alot of contact on the ball. What this means is he has hit well for both average and power, but his tools are not explosive so the power may not keep up. With aggression comes a lack of walks which is not good for the strat card. Campbell is an average defender and will probably see a position change due to Chipper Jones and Van Pope.

7. Yusmeiro Petit – P – Florida Marlins
I have never been a Petit fan, which is probably why he falls here...beating out two guys that have not pitched in the minors yet and one guy that is injured. Petit brings to the mound four average pitches. A high 80’s fastball and solid slider, curve and change. He consistently produces in the minors but I question if he will in the majors.

8. Dallas Buck – P – Arizona Diamondbacks
Buck is a very interesting story. Coming out of high school he was a loose cannon that threw hard. He goes to Oregon and becomes a control pitcher with only average stuff. He then is expected to go in the first round, leads Oregon to a championship and slips to the third round. The reason why is he is a high injury risk. The upside potential is many think Buck will get some of his power back after a surgery. If he does the fact he has learned to pitch is a good thing.

9. Merkin Valdez – P – San Francisco Giants
Valdez may be the most talented player on this list. He throws a plus mid 90’s lively fastball and also has an above average changeup. Valdez has struggled to find a plus third pitch, which probably limits him to the bullpen. The big challenge with Valdez is health. His mechanics are not good and he has not pitched much since 2003 because of injuries.

10. Jordan Walden – P – NCAA
The worst thing for Walden is probably publications like Baseball America. At the beginning of the last year Walden was rated the top high school prospect because he throws hard (upper 90’s). Walden’s largest problem is that he has inconsistent mechanics which always scares teams away because of command and injury issues. Add in the fact he committed to Texas and he fell in the draft. Walden wants to play in the minors which is why he went to JC, but he also wants 1st round money. He probably will only get that if he throws great numbers and removes the concern of secondary offerings and consistency. If he does, he could move to #2 on this list OR he could become another Merkin Valdez.

Best of the Rest: Jason Donald – SS – Philadelphia Phillies
Sleeper: David DiNatale – P – Toronto Blue Jays
Up Next: Blues

Top 10 Prospects - Black Pelicans

The Black Pelicans has historically had a strong minor league system, but in the opinion of this "so called" writer, they have done a poor job drafting over the last few years and now have an average minor league system that is has few "high ceiling" prospects, and about 10-15 solid major league prospects. What is interesting about the minor league system is they seem to be deep with solid pitchers and left fielders.

1. Travis Snider - OF - Toronto Blue Jays

In my opinion, Snider is by far the best prospect in the Black Pelicans system. Snider brings a very strong overall bat with plus power to the plate. He brings an advanced approach to the plate which allows him to generate a good amount of walks. Snider will never be a strong defensive player as he has the potential for average speed and an average arm. Snider will be in Low A next year and probably has a future in left field or first base for the Black Pelicans.

2. Alberto Callaspo - 2B - Arizona Diamondbacks

The good news about Callaspo is that he continued to hit for average in the minors and he continued to show above average skills defensively. The great news about Callaspo is he continues to improve his patience at the plate which has seen an increase in walks per AB. The bad news will always be that he is a singles hitter only and is as dumb as a brick when it comes to base stealing. The horrible news is he is blocked by Orlando Hudson. Callaspo could become a lead off hitter that gets on base alot, but does not steal...but in the short term he is probably a utility player that backs up Hudson and Drew.

3. Erick Aybar - SS - Los Angeles Angels

The value in Aybar is primarily on the defensive side. He brings very good range and a strong arm to the field. His only negative on the defensive side is he tends to get a little fancy at times causing a greater number of errors then he should have. When at the plate, Aybar brings a free swinging approach. He has above average bat speed and has the ability to hit for a high average. Unfortunately, he does not walk much and has little to no power.

4. Dustin Nippert - P - Arizona Diamondbacks

Nippert makes it this high on the list because his ceiling is higher then most of the guys below him and he happens to be the closest to the majors. Nippert brings a huge 6-8 frame to the mound, a hard mid 90's fastball and a very strong spike curveball. Unfortunately, his fastball is too straight and his changeup is only average. Arizona has seemed to have lost some confidence in Nippert by acquiring Randy Johnson and Doug Davis, and then looking to others for the last spot in the rotation. The best move in my opinion is to move him to the pen and get him to let lose on the fastball-curve combination.

5. Jair Jurrgens - P - Detroit Tigers

Jurrgens has an impressive season in 2006 moving all the way to AA at the age of 20. He brings a plus-plus fastball to the mound which tops out at 97 and has a good amount of movement. What makes this even more interesting is that Jurrgens has pretty good control with the pitch. Where Jurrgens needs to improve is with his secondary offerings. Jurrgens gets rated here because of his potential and ability to pitch in AA at the age of 20.

6. Jacob Mcgee - P - Tampa Bay Devilrays

McGee's strength is that he has three potential plus offerings. His fastball tops out in the mid-90's with above average life. The biggest challenge that McGee has is he tends to overthrow his pitches. With the Devilrays in need of starters, McGee could move fast. It will be interesting to see if he can crack the Black Pelicans rotation when he gets there.

7. Bryan Morris - P - Los Angeles Dodgers

Morris is my favorite prospect for the Black Pelicans and could move up to #2 on this list next year. Morris currently has two plus pitches. The first is a 92-96 fastball which has very solid movement. The second is a 12-6 devastating curveball. He is currently working on a changeup as a third pitch and this will be the key on whether he can become a top of the rotation starter. The other huge question mark is his delivery. It is not very clean and can lean towards both control problems and injuries.

8. Matt Sulentic - OF - Oakland Athletics

Sulentic is not the typical guy I would put on this list, but you cannot deny what he did last year. After being drafted by the A's he was assigned to Low A Northwest league and played against mostly ex-NCAA players. He only hit .354/.409/.479. Sulentic does not profile as a high ceiling player but shows a patient approach at the plate with average power. If he continues hitting the way he is capable he will produce very nice strat cards.

9. John Drennen - OF - Cleveland Indians

Drennen is a very nice prospect but certain weaknesses could hurt him as he moves forward. Drennen's biggest plus is that he will always hit for average and probably will always provide a good number of walk as well. The challenge is that he is not that quick, has no arm and is a line drive hitter that produces very little power. Currently he is in CF but has already showed he cannot handle the defensive responsibilities required. Since he has no arm then left field is a more likely spot...but he does not hit for power.

10. Aaron Thompson - P - Florida Marlins

Many reports state that Thompson could be the next Tom Glavine. I always find it funny how a short hard throwing righty is the next "Pedro" and a soft throwing lefty is the next "Glavine". Thompson probably should not have made this list...but he did. Thompson is a command pitcher that delivers a high 80's fastball, low 80's slider, a change and a curve. Command continues to be his key but I hold out hope that he will regain his low 90's fastball from high school.

Best of the Rest: Thomas Mendoza - P - Los Angeles Angels

Sleeper: Trevor Bell - P - Los Angeles Angels

Up Next: Bangor Blue Ox